Screening out?
Biogen Idec (BIIB) has been forced to learn the importance of disseminating information, quicker and better than any other MS company.
That's what having a side effect, such as PML (progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy) in what was supposed to be a blockbuster MS drug.
PML occurs when the JC virus is reactivated and crosses the blood-brain barrier. The thinking is that if a person who goes on Tysabri (Natalizumab) has not been exposed to the JC virus in the past, then they should not be at risk for developing PML.
The first scientific question is whether this holds true -- if you do not acquire JC virus in childhood or adolescence are you really not at risk for developing PML with Tysabri? Could being exposed to Tysabri make someone more likely to even get infected in the first place with a virus that is thought to be acquired when we are younger?
For the moment we will leave that question behind, as well as the question of what percentage of people in the general population have the latent JC virus : is it 80% as we previously thought, or 50% as new data has suggested?
Will developing a JC virus antibody screen be beneficial to Biogen Idec and Elan?
Firstly, Biogen Idec has prided itself on returning so much of its revenues back into R&D, nd this should be applauded -- so advancing science is always beneficial.
But on a sales point-of-view, I actually think that knowing who does not have the JC virus in their system ill aide the sales of Tysabri. Assuming the test is perfect and that the JC virus is only acquired in younger ages, this would mean that 50% of MS patients are not at risk for PML, even when placed on Tysabri.
This is 50% of the MS market that could [potentially be taken over by Tysabri -- not only in switches as second- or third-line choices, but even as a first-line agent (as it was projected to be back before it was originally voluntarily pulled from the market due to PML. This is a lot larger market share than Tysabri has right now and it can be justified based on the good efficacy data (that looks even better when taking the CLARITY, TRANSFORMS and FREEDOMS studies into consideration -- see:
http://neurologique.blogspot.com/2009/07/merck-kgaa-not-to-be-confused-with.html )
The other 50% of MS patients (those who have been exposed to the JC virus in the past) would be at a potential risk for PML. This doesn't mean that they wouldn't necessarily be placed on Tysabri, but that they are the ones who are at risk -- just as now we think of everyone on Tysabri as being at risk for PML, yet many neurologists and patients choose to be on the medication. So, assuming the 1:1000 risk for PML (simply for demonstrative purposes), then the patient population at risk for PML is actually 500 and so the risk in JC virus antibody positive patients is 1:500 and in JC virus antibody negative patients it is 0:500.
So overall, just as Tysabri patients are willing to assume the risk of PML, the true at-risk MS population of JC virus antinody positive patients will include patients who will be placed on Tysabri despite the risk.
So, the JC virus antinody test will increase the Tysabri market share.
Screening out? No, screening in.
Medical Director
Neurologique
info@neurologique.org
www.neurologique.org