- Dr. Daniel Kantor, MD BSE
Medical Director
Neurologique
info@neurologique.org
www.neurologique.org
Neurology patient care, education and research. Dr. Daniel Kantor specializes in MS (Multiple Sclerosis and migraine / headache medicine.
Migraine and CCSVI have a lot to learn from each other.
Dr. Zamboni (and Dr. Zivadinov preliminarily) thinks that there is more CCSVI in people with MS than in those without Multiple Sclerosis.
[See our other blogs on CCSVI (chronic cerebrospinal venous insufficiency) at:
]
Does that mean that CCSVI causes MS or that fixing the CCSVI will fix/cure/treat the MS?
Well, does a recent study, to be presented at the upcoming AAN (American Academy of Neurology) annual meeting in Toronto, which raises the possibility that there is more migraine in women with MS than in those without MS, also mean that migraines cause MS or that treating the migraine will cure the MS?
No.
In the abstract (http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2010-02/aaon-mmc020210.php) to be presented by Dr. Ilya Krister, they found that by looking at participants in the Nurses' Health Study II, more people who were diagnosed with MS at the end of the 16-year study period had an initial diagnosis of MS than those who were not diagnosed with MS.
So, of the 116,678 women, 18,000 had an initial diagnosis of migraine, of which 82 went on to be diagnosed with MS by the end of the study; of the 98,678 without an initial diagnosis of migraine, 293 were diagnosed with MS by the end of the study.
This information has been picked up and spread around the internet by WebMD, U.S. News and World Report (HealthDay), MSN etc., but before striking fear in the 18 - 20 million American women with migraines, we need to analyze this further (in anticipation of the actual presentation):
This means that 15.427073% of the study population had an initial diagnosis of migraine, which is reasonable considering different prevalence rates depending on age (what is the age distribution in this study?) of approximately 18%. If someone went on to be diagnosed with MS, the prevalence of an initial migraine diagnosis was 21.866…% (which means that 78.133…% of the women who were eventually diagnosed with MS did not start out with a migraine diagnosis). Of the women who started out with an initial migraine diagnosis, 82 (0.455…%) went on to be diagnosed with MS, as opposed to 293 (0.29692535%) who were later diagnosed with MS and who did not have an initial migraine diagnosis.
This suggests that maybe women with MS have an earlier diagnosis of migraine – this can be for several hypothetical reasons, including that women who eventually get diagnosed with MS are more likely to go see a doctor as they may be having other early symptoms and when they see the doctor, they may be diagnosed with migraine at that time.
Looking at epidemiology alone also suggests that neurologists and especially headache specialists have a higher rate of migraine than the general population – in Neurology 2003;61:1271-1272, Evans, Lipton and Silberstein reported that 1-year and lifetime prevalences of migraine in the 220 respondents were as follows: male neurologists, 34.7%, 46.6%; male headache specialists, 59.3%, 71.9%; female neurologists, 58.1%, 62.8%; and female headache specialists, 74.1%, 81.5%.
The idea that migraine precedes the MS, and not vice versa assumes that MS comes on at a certain defined point, like a car accident, instead we believe that MS is diagnosed well after the disease process starts (even prior to the initial symptoms), so it could be that the women who had migraines and then went on to be diagnosed with MS, actually had the MS first.
Epidemiology and prevalence rates can be tricky – in a 1995 meta-analysis by Stewart et al. in the Journal of Clinical Epidemiology, 36.1% of the variation in prevalence estimates among studies was explained by case definitions/. Thus, the largest source of variation in prevalence estimates of migraine has to do with how you decide who does and who doesn’t have migraines. In the Nurses’ Health Study II, the definition of migraine was based upon the participant having gone to a doctor and that doctor having given them a diagnosis of migraine. This makes the data more difficult to interpret.
As some of you may know, a special interest of mine is the intersection between migraine and MS. With that in mind, we looked at a big series of neurology office visits by people with MS and found that neurologists underreported their patients’ migraines. A possible reason for this is that if a neurologist is less familiar with MS, she may focus on the disease process itself (the medications can be frightening) and not on the individual symptoms. This is why it is very important to write down three major issues you want to discuss with your neurologist at each office visit, so it will focus the visit on the symptoms and issues important to YOU.
Let’s delve deeper into the numbers in the press release of Dr. Krister’s study/ At the end of the study, 375 out of 116,678 women had an MS diagnosis. This makes a prevalence of 321.397835 per 100,000. This is extremely high and raises questions about the data. If we take the prevalence of MS in the U.S. as 450,000 and we assume that two-thirds of people with MS are women, then there are 300,000 women with MS in the United States out of a population of 154,938,000 women in the U.S. (2008 census of U.S. population is 303,800,000 of whom ~51% are women). This means that in the U.S. there are 193.61584 women with MS per 100,000 and if we took the very high number of 321.397835 per 100,000 as in the Nurses’ Health Study II, there should be ~497,967 women with MS in the United States!
So, how does this all related to CCSVI?
Well, looking at associations can be confusing and even looking at large numbers of people doesn’t always answer the question.
But we can keep trying, can't we?
P.S. Think about the name of a diagnosis that affects women more than men; young more than old; has a genetic component; normal appearing white matter may not be so normal; has white spots (T2 hyperintensities) on brain MRI in a quarter of people in some series; and involves inflammation on the meninges (covering of the brain, optic nerves and spinal cord).
Give up?
Clue: It's not MS.
It's migraine.
- Dr. Daniel Kantor, MD BSE
Medical Director
Neurologique
info@neurologique.org
www.neurologique.org
These are promising results, but remember a few things that we discussed on previous blogs:
http://neurologique.blogspot.com/2009/11/going-to-other-side.html
http://neurologique.blogspot.com/2009/12/on-other-hand.html
We need to prove the association (although 500 is a large number of patients) and then see whether association is equal to causation and then whether causation means that we can fix it after the fact.
I know it is hard, but patience is key ...